Do Bitcoin price models work? Rainbow, Pi Cycle, S2F tested
Quick answer
No, not in our tests. We tested 8 Bitcoin price models on real price history, each with its pass bar written before we looked: 0 passed, 7 failed and 1 was mixed or studies.
8 tests0 passed
7 failed1 mixed or studies
What it means for you
Bitcoin models and cycles: what this family of tests supports, in plain moves. Information only, not financial advice.
- A model fitted to Bitcoin's past describes that past well. In our tests none of them timed the next move better than simply holding.
- Use them as context for where a cycle might be, never as a timer for buying or selling.
- Every cycle so far has broken at least one famous model. The next one probably will too.
All 8 tests, passed first
FAILEDOct 27, 2026
No. It pointed the right way (bottom bands +53% a year later, top bands +7%), but both did worse than Bitcoin's average year (+313%). Full result →
FAILEDOct 27, 2026
No. It nailed 2 of 4 tops, but the other two signals came 210 and 243 days early. Full result →
FAILEDOct 27, 2026
No. After Bitcoin rose above 2.4x its 200-day average, the next 90 days were only 2.6% worse than usual, too small to matter, and there has been no signal since 2021. Full result →
FAILEDOct 27, 2026
No. Touching the 200-week average was close to the bottom, but buying there did no better than buying on any day (+284% vs +313% a year later). Full result →
FAILEDOct 27, 2026
No. The model was within 2x of the real price on only 45% of days since 2019; in Oct 2026 it said $468,270 when Bitcoin was $80,162. Full result →
FAILEDOct 27, 2026
No. It held on only 2 of 5 events; after the 2020 and 2024 halvings Bitcoin actually rose (15% and 10% in 30 days). Full result →
FAILEDOct 27, 2026
No. A small edge over all history (2.0% more) turned into a big miss since 2024 (14.1% less). Full result →
MIXEDOct 27, 2026
Partly. The 2012, 2016 and 2024 cycles peaked 12-18 months after the halving, but the 2020 cycle didn't, so it's a pattern, not a law. Full result →
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Tested on past prices with no fees unless stated; the past is no promise. Information only, not financial advice. Every test on one page →