DCA, lump sum or a basket: which crypto buying plan works?
Quick answer
We tested 8 buying plans on real price history, each with its pass bar written before we looked: 2 passed, 2 failed and 4 were mixed or studies. The ones that passed: Bitcoin 60% + Ether 40%: rebalance monthly or never; Size by calm: put more in the steadier coins (top-10 basket weighted by 1 / volatility).
8 tests2 passed
2 failed4 mixed or studies
What it means for you
Buying plans and portfolios: what this family of tests supports, in plain moves. Information only, not financial advice.
- How much and how steadily you bought mattered more than picking the day.
- A simple fixed plan with occasional rebalancing held up; spreading into many smaller coins did not beat concentrating in the biggest ones.
- The plan you can keep through a crash beats the clever one you abandon.
All 8 tests, passed first
PASSEDOct 27, 2026
Yes. Rebalancing every month roughly doubled the result from 2016 ($3,171,299 vs $1,566,526), though since 2024 the edge was small. Full result →
PASSEDOct 27, 2026
Yes. Putting more into the steadier coins beat equal amounts ($114,240 vs $47,440) and fell less, but it still trailed Bitcoin alone. Full result →
FAILEDOct 27, 2026
No. $10,000 in Bitcoin alone from 2019 grew to $209,362, vs $47,440 in an equal top-10 basket. Full result →
FAILEDOct 27, 2026
No. Putting more in the biggest coins grew to $127,826, vs $47,440 with equal amounts. Full result →
MIXEDOct 29, 2026
Mixed. Buying $100 a week only in the BUY ZONE helped on smaller coins but not on the biggest ones ($500M+, $1B+), and with more coins added it mostly failed. Full result →
MIXEDOct 27, 2026
It depends on the coin. Buying $100 a week beat a lump sum on 76% of start dates across all coins (most kept falling), but on Bitcoin and Ether a lump sum usually won. Full result →
MIXEDOct 27, 2026
It barely matters on the big coins. Daily beat monthly by 3.9% across all coins, but on the four test coins it lost on 3 of 4 over all history. Full result →
MIXEDOct 27, 2026
About the same. Rebalancing only after a 10% drift traded far less (27 times vs 124), ending a bit lower from 2016 and a bit higher from 2024. Full result →
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Tested on past prices with no fees unless stated; the past is no promise. Information only, not financial advice. Every test on one page →