Do moving average and trend rules work in crypto?
Quick answer
Mostly no. We tested 20 trend and moving-average rules on real price history, each with its pass bar written before we looked: 2 passed, 18 failed. The ones that passed: All coins: sell when the BUY ZONE ends (vs holding); Does selling below the 200-day moving average work.
20 tests2 passed
18 failed
What it means for you
Trend rules: what this family of tests supports, in plain moves. Information only, not financial advice.
- The one family of rules that passed sells when the long-term trend breaks. It wins by losing less in the falls, not by catching the tops.
- On a coin that keeps rising, Bitcoin included, the same rule costs you: you sell, the coin recovers, you buy back higher. It is a seat-belt, not an engine.
- Buy-side trend rules (buy on the cross, buy in the zone) did far worse than the sell side.
All 20 tests, passed first
PASSEDOct 29, 2026
Yes, on most coins: selling when the BUY ZONE ended beat holding on 80% of 273 coins, mostly because it got you out of coins that kept falling. Full result →
PASSEDOct 29, 2026
Partly. Selling when a coin closed below its 200-day average beat holding on 81% of coins, mostly by losing less on falling coins; on coins that kept rising, Bitcoin among them, holding usually won. Full result →
FAILEDOct 29, 2026
No. 'Stay out' stretches weren't especially bad times: betting on a fall did better then (+1.6%) than in a clear downtrend (-0.6%). Full result →
FAILEDOct 29, 2026
No. Switching between betting up, betting down and staying out beat plain holding on only 33% of coins. Full result →
FAILEDOct 29, 2026
No. Waiting for a dip to the 50-day average inside the BUY ZONE did worse than buying on any BUY ZONE day (3.1% less gain). Full result →
FAILEDOct 29, 2026
No. Buying support touches inside the BUY ZONE did worse than buying on any BUY ZONE day (4.1% less gain). Full result →
FAILEDOct 29, 2026
No. Other coins did only a little better when Bitcoin was above its 200-day average (1.8% more gain), and since 2024 they did worse (3.0% less). Full result →
FAILEDOct 29, 2026
No. Adding a 'Bitcoin is below its 200-day' warning on top of a coin's BUY ZONE didn't help reliably, and since 2024 it pointed the wrong way. Full result →
FAILEDOct 29, 2026
No. Waiting for 7 closes below the 200-day before selling beat both holding and selling on the first close on only 36% of coins. Full result →
FAILEDOct 29, 2026
No. Selling on a death cross beat both holding and simply selling on the first close below the 200-day on only 32% of 273 coins. Full result →
FAILEDOct 27, 2026
No. It looked good on the four test coins (10.0% more gain), but across all coins it barely helped (1.1%), and since 2024 it did worse. Full result →
FAILEDOct 23, 2026
No. On PENGU, days above the 200-day average were followed by worse results (-20%), though selling below it did cut the worst fall (-60% vs -85%). Full result →
FAILEDOct 23, 2026
No. The 200-day rule failed on DOGE, APE, QNT and XRP, each on its own. Full result →
FAILEDOct 23, 2026
No. It failed on Cardano and Chainlink too; now 0 of 7 other coins pass. Full result →
FAILEDOct 23, 2026
No. Even 'Strong Buy' coins were up a month later only 45% of the time (35% since 2024); only the SELL rating held up. Full result →
FAILEDOct 23, 2026
No. At 6 and 12 months the buy ratings did even worse; since 2024, Strong Buy was up a year later only 20% of the time. Full result →
FAILEDOct 23, 2026
No. Across 174 coins, buying only above the 200-day average gave 2.8% less gain per coin. Full result →
FAILEDOct 23, 2026
No. Selling on one close below the 200-day beat the death cross on only 48% of coins, and lost on Bitcoin since 2011. Full result →
FAILEDOct 22, 2026
No. Our own 'STRONG BUY' coins did 1.4% worse than the average coin. Full result →
FAILEDOct 22, 2026
No. BUY ZONE coins beat the average coin in only 43% of 28-day periods. Full result →
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Tested on past prices with no fees unless stated; the past is no promise. Information only, not financial advice. Every test on one page →