The 9 rules that passed
Out of 112 crypto rules we have tested on real price history, these 9 cleared the pass bar we wrote down before looking: they held over the full history and since 2024. Everything else failed or came out mixed. Every result is on The Evidence.
Save this page: PDF version · updated with every new test.
So far, yes. Every 50%+ Bitcoin crash since 2011 got back to its old record within 0.5 to 3.2 years; the 2025 crash (-53%) isn't back yet.
Yes, on most coins: selling when the BUY ZONE ended beat holding on 80% of 273 coins, mostly because it got you out of coins that kept falling.
Partly. Selling when a coin closed below its 200-day average beat holding on 81% of coins, mostly by losing less on falling coins; on coins that kept rising, Bitcoin among them, holding usually won.
Yes, on most coins: selling on a close below the 50-day average beat holding on 86% of 273 coins, mainly by cutting losses on falling coins.
Barely. Ether beat Bitcoin by 2.0% more than usual after this signal, right at the bar and on only 30 signals, so it could be luck.
Yes. Rebalancing every month roughly doubled the result from 2016 ($3,171,299 vs $1,566,526), though since 2024 the edge was small.
Yes. Putting more into the steadier coins beat equal amounts ($114,240 vs $47,440) and fell less, but it still trailed Bitcoin alone.
Yes, so far. When the dollar rose 3%+ in 90 days, coins did 8.5% worse over the next month, though with this many tests it could be luck.
Yes, but on very few events. After delisting news, privacy coins trailed Bitcoin by 14.2% on average over 30 days (before 2024).
How to read them honestly
- They win by losing less. The sell rules beat holding because most coins fall over time; on a coin that keeps rising, Bitcoin among them, simply holding did better.
- Before fees and taxes. Every number is before trading costs unless the test says otherwise. A rule that trades often loses part of its edge to costs.
- Some passes are luck. With this many tests, a few passes are expected by chance alone. That is why every pass is being re-checked live, on prices that did not exist when it was tested.
- Today's coins. Coins that died along the way are mostly missing from the history, which flatters holding.
- A past result is not a forecast. Information only, not financial advice.